[SMM Steel Import and Export Analysis] Annual Steel Exports Expected to Reach a New High!

On December 8, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 9.98 million mt of steel in November 2025, an increase of 198,000 mt MoM, up 2.0% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to November reached 107.717 million mt, up 6.7% YoY.

In November, China imported 496,000 mt of steel, a decrease of 7,000 mt MoM, down 1.4% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to November stood at 5.541 million mt, down 10.5% YoY.

· China's Steel Export Growth Expanded

China's total steel exports in November increased by 2% MoM, with the YoY growth rate widening compared to previous periods. The reasons are twofold. First, according to SMM production schedule data, steel mills' export plans for hot-rolled coil in October and November both showed MoM increases. Meanwhile, SMM export order data indicated that export orders from September to October rose by 5% MoM compared to August-September, making the increase in November's steel exports foreseeable.

· China's Steel Imports Remained Low in November

On the import side, China imported 496,000 mt of steel in November, maintaining a net export position. The net export volume for the first 11 months was 1.072176 billion mt, remaining at a historically low level for the same period.

· Short-Term Outlook for Steel Exports

According to the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI in November 2025 was 49.6%, down 0.1% MoM, marking the ninth consecutive month within the 49%-50% range. Asia remained relatively stable, while Europe, America, and Africa showed MoM weakening. Based on China's manufacturing PMI data, the new export orders index for November was 47.6%, up 1.7 percentage points MoM.

Data monitored by the World Steel Association shows that global crude steel production for the 70 countries included in its statistics reached 1.518 billion mt from January to October 2025, down 2.1% YoY. Production in regions outside China increased by 0.45% YoY, indicating some expansion in overseas capacity. India, with a 10% YoY growth rate, became the primary growth driver in overseas markets, fueled by continued investment in domestic infrastructure and rapid expansion of manufacturing capacity. The ongoing recovery in global crude steel capacity has exerted some inhibitory pressure on China's steel exports.

As of November 28, 2025, the export offers (FOB) for hot-rolled coil in India, Turkey, and the CIS were $485/mt, $520/mt, and $455/mt, respectively. China's hot-rolled coil export offer (FOB) was $468/mt. Currently, China's export price for hot-rolled coil is lower than India by $17/mt, lower than Turkey by $52/mt, and higher than the CIS by $13/mt. Compared to October, the price advantages changed by -5.56%, -23.53%, and -550% MoM, respectively.

Figure 1 - Price Spreads of Hot-Rolled Coil Export Offers in Major Global Markets

According to the latest steel mill export order schedules from SMM, the planned export volume of hot-rolled coil in December increased by 8.4% MoM compared to the actual export volume in November, demonstrating strong resilience. Regionally, as the year-end approaches, some steel mills in Northeast China are pushing to meet their annual export targets, coupled with strong price competitiveness, leading to sustained high planned export volumes this month. Export plans for steel mills in East China, North China, and South China remained largely stable.

Based on SMM shipping data, as of November 30, the total volume of Chinese steel products departing from ports in November was 11,998.1kt, down 1.38% MoM from October. The discrepancy between the two is mainly due to the narrowing price advantage of steel billets recently, which led to a decline in order intake.

Overall, according to SMM steel export order data, export orders from October to November saw an increase of more than half compared to those from September to October. However, some shipments are scheduled for January. Taking into account both export order intake and hot-rolled coil export data, SMM predicts that exports will continue to increase MoM in December. Nevertheless, the export price advantage for various domestic steel products has declined significantly, and risks associated with orders for wide hot-rolled coil in Vietnam persist. New orders received in December may struggle to maintain the previous high levels, and there is a risk of a pullback in export data for January.

Figure 2 - SMM Steel Export Order Volume

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